Lots of reporting compares the size of Red China’s navy (growing) to that of the U.S. Navy (shrinking). Thus, says Defense Security Asia, “Beijing is accelerating toward a 435-ship People’s Liberation Army Navy by 2030 while the United States risks falling below 300 battle force vessels, creating a strategic imbalance with direct consequences for Taiwan, the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific deterrence.”
What about comparing apples to apples, capital ships to capital ships? On this basis, some analysts will temporize, stressing that the U.S. ships are bigger, better armed, more capable. The counter is an argument of interior lines. Red China’s navy is concentrated, America’s is dispersed.
The Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) poses threats to the U.S. Navy (USN) beyond ship counts and interior lines. The PLAN is building—but does not necessarily need—more ships to outmatch the USN.
Drones
First, there is the matter of seaborne drones. The U.S. Naval Institute says that America “is looking to field thousands of unmanned surface vessels to the Indo-Pacific by 2030.” It notes that Pacific Admiral Samuel Paparo advocated the use of such drones in 2024. As recently as 2024, one could say. Meanwhile, in March 2026, PLAN actually staged drone swarming drills, drills that “showcased coordinated swarm behavior, with multiple L30 USVs [unmanned surface vehicles] independently navigating, detecting, and containing a simulated intruder.”
At the end of 2023, before Admiral Paparo began advocating use of drones, Beijing launched the Zhu Hai Yun as a “research vessel.” This is “an autonomous vessel designed specifically to carry, launch, and recover dozens of air, surface, and underwater drones.” It is a drone carrier that is itself a drone. We dream; they deploy.
But we are just scratching the surface, as it were, because in September 2025 Beijing displayed “new, massive underwater drone submarines (XLUUVs)” in a military parade. (XLUUV = “extra-large unmanned [or uncrewed] undersea vehicle”).
National Security Journal reports that “China’s Navy (PLAN) has the most extensive XLUUV program of any nation, with at least five types in the water for several years [emphasis added]…. A nuclear-capable Chinese UUV would add an asymmetric layer to its deterrence posture, complicating US and allied naval planning in the Indo-Pacific. Militarily, it could be used to threaten high-value naval formations and coastal infrastructure, forcing adversaries to consider new layers of anti-submarine defense.”
Another task for PLAN drones, large or small, new or old, would be to destroy America’s undersea sensors. “This includes destroying, sabotaging, or spoofing underwater microphones using a variety of countermeasures.” The point is to blind our tracking and locating of underwater craft.
And PLAN’s drones can also serve as detectors. “Chinese researchers have developed and tested a drone-mounted quantum sensor that could allow faster and more accurate detection of submarines and underwater features, according to a study published April 16 in the Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument.”
It’s a drone world out there but the Navy will be ready by 2030.
And don’t get me started on hypersonic missiles. Beijing’s recent military parade introduced the new YJ-15, one of four types of naval hypersonic missiles in that parade. One of four. Meanwhile, as of April 2026, “Army and Navy Continue Tests of Hypersonic Missile.” We’ll get one eventually.
Q-ships
And the Q-ships, heavily armed merchant ships, are back, stepping out of history to threaten PLAN’s future enemies.
This is major:
“The Zhong Da 79 is a medium-sized civilian cargo ship capable of carrying containerised vertical missile launchers, radar sensors and self-defence systems.” Ordnance Industry Science Technology “referred to the vessel as a ‘containerised destroyer’, noting its firepower matched that of the PLA’s Type 052D destroyers…. Its deck is loaded with 15 standard shipping containers, each housing four vertical launch systems (VLS) identical to those found on Type 052D and Type 055 destroyers. In total, the vessel carries 60 VLS cells, capable of launching HHQ-9B and HHQ-9C surface-to-air missiles, YJ-18 anti-ship missiles and CJ-10 cruise missiles. The launch of the Zhong Da 79 shows Beijing’s ability to convert civilian ships for military use by placing container units directly onto the deck of transport vessels for naval combat.”
Instant navy. Just add water.
“The Zhong Da 79 could hide in commercial vessel fleets and attack adversaries in key areas, the magazine said. ‘One can imagine future naval warfare where multiple unassuming containerised destroyers cruise at normal commercial speeds of 20 knots, hiding within bustling commercial shipping lanes to serve as firepower nodes in vital sea areas and chokepoints,’ it said. It added that the core strength of the Zhong Da 79 was its low cost backed by Beijing’s strong shipbuilding capacity.”
Marines
Finally, there is the expansion of the Marine Corps. Not ours, theirs.
At present, “the PLANMC numbers 100,000 personnel across six light mechanized combined arms brigades, one special operations brigade and its first aviation brigade…. Its Marines can be found conducting overseas training missions in Africa, guarding China’s overseas base in Djibouti and garrisoning Beijing’s disputed island garrisons in the South China Sea. PLAN Marines have also participated in anti-piracy operations and evacuated Chinese citizens from Yemen. Moreover, the PLAN has expanded its amphibious lift four-fold since 2000 and nearly doubled it over the last four years. The PLANMC can now rely on four helicopter landing assault ships….”
This takes us back to an apples-to-apples comparison with the U.S. Marine Corps.
The American Spectator writes: “Despite the Pentagon’s crowing about having two Marine Corps Expeditionary Units in waters off Iran, the Marine Corps lacks the basic tools needed to conduct urban combat [on industrial Kharg Island]. Marines currently lack tanks, heavy engineers, and school-trained snipers required to wage modern urban battles. Up until 2020, the Marines had all three of these assets.” Since then it has been transformed “into a defensive missile-firing organization focused against the Chinese in the South China Sea.”
When comparing the U.S. Navy to the PLA Navy, apples-to-apples comparisons have some use. Maybe apples-to-fruit-basket analogies would serve better. □
James Roth works for a major defense contractor in Virginia.
Also see:
StoptheCCP.org: “With Red China in Mind, U.S. Marine Corps Makes Terrible Tradeoff” (April 26, 2025)
“The once flexible, deployable, and powerful USMC is now a static, withered, technocratic force that is unable to perform any of its statutory missions.”
StoptheCCP.org: “U.S. and China: Our Navy, Their Navy, and the Parity of Disparity” (February 14, 2024)
“Perhaps China’s culture of corruption, shortcuts, and rigidity will limit the vast material superiority of its navy just as our technological hubris limits our naval inferiority.”
StoptheCCP.org: “Laggards Gonna Lag; or, American Hypo-Hypersonic”
