“Classified” U.S. intelligence—let’s say semi-classified at most, if it’s ending up in news reports—“warns of China’s preparations for Taiwan invasion” that entail “rapidly building up the country’s commercial ferry fleet….” These “roll-on-roll-off” (ro-ro) ferries would be used in conjunction with linked barges and landing docks.
The report dates from earlier this year and was prepared by members of the Defense Intelligence Agency for the Pentagon. The US intelligence says the large ocean-going vessels have been modified to carry tanks and [participate] in amphibious operations.
The ABC has seen the report on the condition that it is not quoted directly, in order to protect the source of the information.
In 2022 alone, some 30 Chinese commercial ferries were monitored by Five Eyes intelligence in military exercises involving People’s Liberation Army troops. Five Eyes is an intelligence-sharing alliance between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. China is building more than 70 of the large vessels by the end of 2026.
Taiwan’s government confirmed to the ABC that it viewed the vessels as part of China’s “expansionist intentions” vis-a-vis Taiwan….
[James Corera, director of cyber, technology and security at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute]: “Many [of these ferries] are owned by state-linked firms and modified under laws requiring ‘national defence’ features.”
Accounts of the June 1940 evacuation of British and French soldiers from Dunkirk don’t usually refer to the “dual-use” character of the civilian boats deployed in the operation in addition to Naval vessels. The term often describes things developed from the outset with a view to being usable for civilian as well as military purposes; or, as in this case, to things not originally developed with a military purpose in view but later modified to serve such a purpose. Examples of dual-use Chinese technology include satellites, artificial intelligence, and ferries.
We are lucky that the “strategic headache for US military planners” posed by the prospective size of the PRC ferry fleet that is coming into being will probably not include an unwillingness to target them because they are “civilian ships.” This concern has at least been rejected on paper.
“Targeting civilian ships, like ferries, violates international legal norms, known as the Law of Armed Conflict, unless they have been clearly requisitioned for military use. The dilemma is explored in US Indo-Pacific Command discussion papers, which considered whether targeting civilian-built ferries would violate international law. The paper was based on the scenario of a future armed clash with China over Taiwan. It concluded that ferries being operated by the PLA were legitimate military targets.”
That the ferries are being adapted to serve possible wartime missions has not been a secret. Chinese Communist Party propaganda shows them being used in a military context.
