Last week, the Institute for the Study of War reported on a major military exercise in the waters around Taiwan that the People’s Republic of China had commenced several days earlier without fanfare.
This hundred-plus-vessel exercise simulated “surrounding and isolating Taiwan. The PRC likely aims to demonstrate that it can cut Taiwan off from air and sea during a conflict, eroding Taiwanese confidence in its ability to resist PRC aggression.” Well, let’s say “in hopes of eroding Taiwanese confidence.” The mere existence of a plan to weaken Taiwanese confidence and resolve by yet another bellicose display does not mean that the plan will work (ISW, November 6, 2026).
Taiwanese National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu reported on November 3 that over 100 People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels were operating in the West Pacific. Joseph Wu released data that appeared to show two main PLAN and CCG concentrations located between Taiwan and its principal partners, simulating isolation operations.
The first concentration consists of four task forces from three different People’s Liberation Army theater commands operating between Taiwan and Guam, including the Liaoning carrier strike group. ISW-CDOT reported that the strike group moved to the West Pacific via the Basilan Strait in the Philippines between October 23 and 26. The second concentration includes at least six CCG vessels and an unspecified number of PLAN vessels surrounding Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense detected 49 air sorties around Taiwan on November 2, an unusually high number that included 36 sorties south of Taiwan that may have flown to support the four task forces operating in the West Pacific. Satellite imagery from November 2 detected the PLAN’s most advanced aircraft carrier Fujian leaving its base in Sanya, Hainan, due east, possibly toward southern Taiwan. Satellite imagery of Sanya Naval Base suggests that at least three other major surface combatants left the base between October 26 and November 2. These deployments represent a significant portion of the PLAN’s combat power, including two of its three carriers and at least four of its ten guided-missile cruisers.
Reuters reported on November 12 that during the drills, “a Chinese submarine also launched an intercontinental ballistic missile from the Yellow Sea into the Chinese mainland.” And quoted an ROC official who called it “a silent exercise—and, in effect, silent intimidation.”
The exercise is an all-out effort of the sort that the PRC may be seeking “to represent…as routine, rather than exceptional,” says ISW. “The PLA’s recent movements around Taiwan and throughout the West Pacific likely serve the dual purpose of preparing for a real isolation campaign while aiming to create informational effects that erode Taiwan’s confidence in its own defense and the ability of its allies and partners to support it.”
The Taiwanese may be nervous about the bullying. But they won’t say “Okay, you win” in response to any PRC military drill no matter how close it gets to genuine blockade or invasion. If Xi Jinping does roll the dice, a military exercise very much like the real thing that suddenly becomes the real thing may be how he does it. But the Taiwanese won’t surrender in that event either.
