The People’s Republic of China is not at war with the Republic of China. The People’s Republic of China has always been at war with the Republic of China.
The mainland’s continuous and many-front aggression against the ROC comes as close to the dictionary definition of war as possible without crossing the threshold. Bigger China is waging a near-war of attrition that the ROC survives by being on constant high alert and, we hope, not making too many mistakes.
Are we observing a roughly stable condition of almost-war that will endure for another couple of millennia—or a progression that will reach a point of no return no matter how destructive full-scale war would be for all involved?
Some of the non-war that’s been happening:
Military drills. “China sends dozens of planes across central line in Taiwan Strait” (EuroNews, June 20, 2025). The PRC sent 74 military planes into the Taiwan Strait, and 61 crossed the median line of the strait that was once more or less respected. “The Chinese planes were sent in two separate waves, with six naval vessels also accompanying the manoeuvres, according to Taiwan.”
Al Jazeera reports that in April, “Taiwan detected 76 Chinese aircraft and 15 naval vessels around the island, when Beijing conducted live-fire exercises that included simulated strikes aimed at the island’s key ports and energy sites.” So far, the largest number of Chinese military planes sent into the Taiwan Strait within a short period was 153 in October 2024, supposedly in response to a speech by Taiwan’s president on National Day.
Cyber attacks. “Taiwan Cyber Unit Says It Will Not Be Intimidated by China Bounty Offer” (U.S. News and World Report, June 11, 2025).
China has published the “pictures, names and Taiwan identity card numbers” of twenty people whom it accuses of cyberhacking on behalf of the ROC military and has offered bounties for their arrest. The Information, Communications and Electronic Force Command of the ROC’s defense ministry says that the Command “will not be affected by this, and will continue to defend the digital frontier and ensure national security through the solid defence of information.”
What is the Republic of China defending itself from, digitally? “A survey of cyber attacks on the U.S. tallied 480,000 for 2022,” our James Roth has noted. “But in 2024, Taipei’s Government Service Network suffered, on average, 2.4 million attacks a day. Double the 1.2 million attacks a day of 2023.” That’s a lot of cyber attacks.
Spying. “Taiwan sees threefold surge in suspected Chinese espionage cases”(CNN, January 13, 2025). Early in the year, the Republic of China reported a “significant rise” in the number of people charged with spying for the mainland.
According to an official report, “some of the suspected spies were tasked to serve as agents of ‘sabotage’ and raise China’s flag in the event of a Chinese invasion. Some were also asked to gather intelligence in a move to build a ‘sniper team’ for an ‘assassination assignment.’ ”
Influencing the influencers. “Taiwan expels Chinese influencers over unification posts” (TVBS, March 24, 2025). “Appearing before a Legislative Yuan committee, Minister Liu defended the government’s decision to revoke the residency permits of the three influencers, explicitly citing their advocacy for Taiwan-China unification as the justification…. The Interior Ministry has already instructed local household registration offices to terminate their registrations, effectively suspending their legal status on the island.”
Through its United Front Work Department, the CCP has been bribing some Taiwanese “influencers” to parrot CCP propaganda (“narratives,” as Taiwan News puts it). One “former pro–CCP influencer and rapper” who had been approached by the Party, Chen Po-yuan, later told all in a documentary about China’s campaign to enlist Taiwanese personalities in its propaganda campaigns.
The UFWD once asked Chen “to write a song critical of the DPP [the Democratic Progressive Party]. The resulting track, Chinese Bosses, praised business opportunities in China and was sung in a Taiwanese accent to appeal to audiences in Taiwan.
“He added that his instructions included positive portrayals of Kuomintang (KMT) politicians such as Hung Hsiu-chu and Hou You-yi. Messages also included statements such as, ‘I would rather live in mainland China than in authoritarian Taiwan.’ ”
Cutting data cables. “Chinese ship captain jailed for damaging Taiwan’s undersea cable” (BBC, June 12, 2025). One of the things China likes to do is disrupt Internet communications by severing undersea cables. The recent incident is not the first time the PRC government has snipped Taiwan’s undersea data cables, but this is the first time that Taiwan has jailed someone for doing it. The captain first denied any involvement, then claimed the severing of the cable was accidental. But the court was not convinced.
“The Tainan District Court’s verdict on Thursday marks the first sentencing after reports in recent years of undersea cables around Taiwan being severed. Taipei has accused Beijing of sabotaging its cables, describing it as a ‘grey zone’ tactic to pressure the self-ruled island, which China claims as its territory. But China has denied its involvement, calling the incidents ‘common maritime accidents’ that have been ‘exaggerated’ by Taiwanese authorities.”
Also see:
Global Taiwan Institute: The Chinese Communist Party’s Gray Zone Tactics Against Taiwan
