The latest information about the final results of the July 26, 2025 recall elections in the Republic of China is the same as the information we had on July 26: all 24 recall elections held on that day failed to recall the Kuomintang officeholder.
In many of the recall elections, pro-recall voters did not exceed 25% of all eligible voters, a minimum threshold for success of a recall. (As Focus Taiwan puts it: “For the recall to pass, ‘yes’ votes must outnumber ‘no’ votes and make up more than 25% of all eligible voters.”)
I say that in “many” the 25% threshold was not met because I can’t find a precise count of districts where this was the case; or, for that matter, specific district-by-district results. (But see the Central News Agency’s map by district of the recall vote.)
Ben Levine of the Global Taiwan Institute says that the recalls “either failed to achieve the required turnout threshold of 25 percent of eligible voters in the district, or received more ‘no’ than ‘yes’ votes (or both).” Were there any districts in which the threshold was not met but the majority of voters voting on July 26 did vote for recall? I don’t know for sure, but it seems that any instances of such a result would have been striking enough to be mentioned in the reporting. (After we published this post, Levine confirmed this in response to a query: “In the July 26th recalls, there were no districts in which the threshold of 25 percent was not met and the majority of voters voted ‘yes.’ “)
How it happened
Levine explains why the recall came about (August 5, 2025).
The 2024 Taiwanese elections produced a divided government, with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) winning the presidential election, and the KMT winning a plurality of seats in the Legislative Yuan (LY), Taiwan’s unicameral legislature. Because the KMT did not win a majority of the 113 seats, the party established a governing coalition with the TPP. As soon as the new legislature was seated in early 2024, the KMT/TPP coalition proposed amendments to the Legislative Yuan Exercise of Official Powers Law, in which the LY’s investigative powers were to be strengthened. Under [these amendments], government officials could be compelled to testify, provide documents, and face steep penalties for non-compliance. These amendments prompted concerns about the potential shift of power away from the executive branch towards the legislative branch without sufficient oversight.
The proposed changes sparked widespread backlash against the KMT/TPP coalition, particularly among younger Taiwanese who viewed the amendments as a threat to checks and balances amongst the branches of government—and in a broader sense, to Taiwan’s democracy as a whole. This led to the rise of the Bluebird Movement, a protest movement that led the opposition to these amendments. The KMT/TPP coalition ultimately passed the amendments, but the Constitutional Court subsequently struck them down as unconstitutional. This background, and the civic activism of the Bluebird Movement, set the stage for the July 2025 recall campaigns.
The coalition’s efforts to undermine national defense also contributed to the dismay that motivated the recall effort.
According to polling conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, in May, June, and July support for the recall campaign among Taiwanese never exceeded 40.1%. Opposition to the recall ranged from 44.1% to 48.9%; in July, the percentage opposed was 44.1%.
Now what?
Now some analysts are saying that President Lai will have to find a way to work with the KMT and TPP coalition that is trying to undermine his ability to function and the ability of the Republic of China to resist the sundry nonstop onslaughts conducted by the government of the People’s Republic of China. But no magic potion exists that will enable the Democratic Progressive Party to strengthen the ROC’s ability to defend itself from the mainland while also enabling the Kuomintang to weaken the ROC’s ability to defend itself from the mainland.
Also see:
Focus Taiwan: “LIVE UPDATE/Results of 2025 Taiwan recall vote”
