China’s latest moves in the South China Sea increasingly come with the label “increasingly aggressive.”
The gray zone does seem to keep getting grayer. Since all the countries subject to China’s increasing aggression are in the same boat, or body of water, the more military partnerships they form to fend it off the better.
Drill
In August 2024 there were “first-ever joint coast guard drills last month [that] are part of a larger effort to curb China’s power in the region,” says Politico. The drills were followed by a mutual pledge by Vietnamese and Philippine officials to improve military cooperation (“Manila and Hanoi team up against China,” September 6, 2024).
Following those patrols [China’s] coast guard has escalated its ongoing standoff with Manila by extending its harassment to waters adjacent to the Philippines’ Sabina Shoal. That’s where a China Coast Guard ship deliberately rammed a Philippine vessel last week in an incident that U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said caused “damage to the vessel and jeopardizing the safety of the crew onboard.”
And the Philippines—which has borne the brunt of Beijing’s aggression, namely violent efforts by the China Coast Guard to block resupply missions to Manila’s military outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal—is still struggling to solidify regional support.
The Philippines and Vietnam have their own disputes in the area. But according to Jay L. Batongbacal, a professor at the University of the Philippines, told VOA News that their joint drills show “what is possible between claimants who are sincere in their declarations to cooperate and improve relations….”
Politico says that the message the partnership sends to China is “back off,” in response to which China, “so far, is brushing off the warning.” Even if China hasn’t yet packed up and left the area, “back off” is a better message than “let’s have a phony gentlemen’s agreement.”
Reports about the area are starting to forget the laughable “agreement” fashioned between a duplicitous China and a semi-gullible Philippines some weeks ago, perhaps ancient history now. According to the announced “agreement,” China was supposed to stop assaulting certain Philippine vessels on certain missions in the South China Sea, in return for—well, apparently in return for submission to China’s Sea-ownership claims. The sides immediately clashed over what were the actual terms of the agreement.
Agree to disagree
I guess we can now pretend that this pretend-agreement never happened. But the Philippine government should at least remember it to the extent of avoiding any further such negotiations. In return for being temporarily left alone, China had wanted the Philippines to play along with the fiction that the whole South China Sea is China’s to govern by right, including much of the area around the Philippines that international agreements call its exclusive economic zone. The Philippines rejected this trade-off.
The Philippines and Japan have also recently conducted first-ever joint military exercises.
Counter measures and regional cooperation are a better way to deal with China’s aggression. However, VOA News observes that Vietnam has also been conducting drills with China. In June, their navies “held a two-day joint patrol exercise in the Gulf of Tonkin between Vietnam and China, which Chinese state media said was their 36th such drill.” So is that over now, or…?
