After a planned April meeting was scrapped because of the Iran war, President Donald Trump and dictator Xi Jinping, along with other officials, are now meeting on May 14 and May 15.
Iran, trade, Taiwan
“While the leaders are expected to unveil trade deals Trump can tout as a win back home, Iran is likely to dominate the conversation. The US continues its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, with major implications for China, the largest consumer of Iranian oil. The leaders’ meeting comes days after Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Beijing, underscoring close ties between the two countries….
“Some US officials have expressed concern that Trump is walking into a meeting where Xi holds the cards—and that the Chinese leader may use that leverage to get what he wants on an issue important to Beijing: Taiwan.”
—“Trump is now in China amid the war with Iran. What are his goals?” CNN
Shrinking summit
“ ‘A year ago, there was all the talk about the prospect for some kind of grand bargain between the U.S. and China,’ said Jonathan Czin, a former senior China analyst at the CIA who frequently meets with Chinese and U.S. officials. ‘What I’ve heard over and over again is that maybe little bargains are possible.’ ”
—“How the Trump-Xi meeting became ‘the shrinking summit,’ ” Politico
American hostages
“This is not a side issue to trade, tariffs, critical minerals, or sanctions. American citizens, lawful permanent residents, and the relatives of Americans are being detained, imprisoned, or trapped under exit bans by the CCP to coerce silence, extract concessions, and censor people inside the United States. This is hostage-taking. It is an unacceptable instrument of state coercion directed at the United States—and it is a direct challenge to American sovereignty. When a foreign government coerces Americans on American soil, it has moved well beyond a human rights issue. It is a test of American will.
“Cases like these are not resolved through normal diplomatic channels. In China’s political system, they reach only one level: Xi Jinping. Prosecutors, security agencies, ministries, and provincial officials all wait for permission from above. ”
—“President Trump must put American hostages first in high-stakes Beijing summit,” Nick Turkel, Fox News
Leverage versus leverage
”Trump built American advantages over China that have not existed in a generation. China’s intelligence operations inside the United States are the one thing that can take those advantages away…. The cases on file over the last eighteen months involve every level of American government and every branch of the uniformed services….
“What the trip should produce:… Push China to the maximum on trade, technology, rare earths, and Iran. And keep Xi back from Taiwan. A Chinese war over the island pulls in the United States, Japan, South Korea, India, and Russia. That is how a third world war begins. The leverage Trump built is what keeps Beijing from triggering it.”
—“Trump Is in Beijing. The CCP Has Been in Arcadia, Albany, and a Navy Base in San Diego,” Daniel Vaughan, Conservative Institute
Nervous in Taipei
“Always nervous before U.S.-China summits that its interests will be traded away to make progress on the issue of the day, Taiwan will be watching for any changes in how the United States describes the cross-strait relationship. Taipei is particularly worried that Beijing will successfully persuade Trump to express ‘support’ for peaceful unification or state that the United States ‘opposes’ rather than ‘does not support’ Taiwan independence. After President Trump said he discussed arms sales to Taiwan in a February 2026 phone call between U.S. and PRC leaders, Taipei is also worried that Trump will negotiate with Xi on arms sales to Taiwan, thereby undermining one of President Ronald Reagan’s Six Assurances. More broadly, Taiwan worries that President Trump’s confidence in his own relationship with Chairman Xi will lead to a lessening of U.S. support for Taiwan in areas such as security, trade, and support for Taiwan’s efforts to preserve its web of official and unofficial international relationships.”
—“Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing: Managing the World’s Most Important Relationship,” CSIS
Stabilization, not a reset
“In a midterm election year, Trump and the Republican Party have little reason to risk another economic shock. High petrol prices, falling real disposable income in recent months and slower job creation are already creating political pressure. A blow-up with China would add uncertainty to inflation, supply chains and financial markets at precisely the wrong moment for the White House.
“Beijing also has few incentives to escalate…. China’s April 2025 export-licensing restrictions on rare earths and magnets did not amount to a full embargo, but they showed Washington how quickly Beijing could create bottlenecks in defence, energy, electronics and automotive supply chains…. In October 2025, China further extended the rare earth export controls but subsequently suspended the measures after reaching an agreement with Donald Trump. Unless both sides extend the agreement, these controls are due to come back into force in early November 2026….
“For Xi, tactical stabilisation is valuable because China’s domestic economy remains weak.”
—“Xi and Trump are heading for tactical stabilisation, not a reset,” EUISS
Advantage Xi
“The meeting between the two major world leaders comes as the U.S.-led war against Iran generates further global instability, and China continues to secure its critical minerals dominance and credibility as a global energy supplier.”
—“At the Trump-Xi Summit, China Will Have the Upper Hand,” Council on Foreign Relations
Rivalry
“For each public compliment, there is another maneuver in a trade war between the two countries. For each assertion of deep friendship, there is an uneasiness about the other’s military ambitions. For each attempt at flattery, there is an accompanying suspicion.”
—“Trump and Xi: Beneath the Pomp and Niceties, a Geopolitical Rivalry,” The New York Times
Open up
“ ‘I will be asking President Xi, a Leader of extraordinary distinction, to ‘open up’ China so that these brilliant people can work their magic, and help bring the People’s Republic to an even higher level!’ Trump wrote on social media, referring to US business CEOs accompanying him on the trip. ‘I will make that my very first request.’ ”
—“Trump lands in China ahead of high-stakes summit with Xi,” Channel News Asia
