Think China thinks that although the People’s Liberation Army may one day be able to conduct a successful raid to grab ROC President Lai Ching-te, that day isn’t here yet.
When capturing Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, the U.S. military was able to bring to bear much relevant experience and capability that China’s military lacks. Also, Taiwan is not Venezuela (March 10, 2026).
America’s 2026 raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro relied on months of intelligence, air dominance and regional deployment. China’s PLA lacks the operational conditions needed to attempt a similar decapitation strike against Taiwan, says Japanese academic Sugiura Yasuyuki….
On 16 January 2026, when asked about concerns in Taiwan that China might conduct an invasion of Taiwan based on the US invasion of Venezuela, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense responded that “all options that can punish the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces remain on the table”….
[But it’s doubtful that] the PLA is capable of executing decapitation operations against Taiwan at this stage. First, while the US military possesses extensive experience from numerous past real-world combat operations, the PLA, despite conducting drills, lacks actual combat experience.
Second…Taiwan’s C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) capabilities and air defence capabilities are considered superior [to those of Venezuela]….
Third…it would be impossible for the PLA to execute decapitation operations without any tactical or strategic warnings. At the stage at which the PLA shows signs of [undertaking] a Taiwan invasion operation, the US military would likely deploy forces around Taiwan, making it improbable that the PLA could succeed in decapitation operations under US surveillance.
All this may be true.
But suppose the People’s Liberation Army somehow managed to grab President Lai (shown above) despite the obstacles. Then what?
Short of war, the mainland cannot really intimidate the Taiwanese more than it has already been doing with its endless military flexing, cyberattacks, United Front forays, and belligerent propaganda. With Lai snatched, would the People’s Republic of China enjoy the same amount of cooperation, however reluctant, from the government of the Republic of China that the United States has received from the Venezuelan government? Would China enjoy the same degree of support from the people of Taiwan that the U.S. has received from the people of Venezuela?
Polling done after the capture of Maduro suggested that most Venezuelans feel that the U.S. raid was a good thing and that their future is now brighter. This would not be the dominant view of the Taiwanese in the wake of a PLA abduction of President Lai.
