ISW has updated its reporting on recent PRC activity near the Philippines to draw two conclusions.
The first conclusion, not exactly new, is that the People’s Republic “is likely increasing military pressure on the Philippines to impose costs on Manila’s opposition to PRC claims in the South China Sea.” One of the bigger country’s claims is that it has the right to ram, water-hose, laser, board, and otherwise harass the smaller country’s vessels operating within the smaller country’s exclusive economic zone. This pressure on the Philippines is years-long.
Taiwan contingency
The new conclusion is that “the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) may also be practicing movements critical to isolating the Philippines [and/or Taiwan] during a future conflict” while also practicing how to break through the first island chain (China & Taiwan Update, October 27, 2026).
The PLAN aircraft carrier Liaoning, alongside two Type 055 guided-missile cruisers and one Type 052D guided-missile destroyer, were deployed to the west Pacific on October 13 before transiting toward the South China Sea on October 15. Philippine media reported that Liaoning and its escorts were next spotted on October 22 north of the Basilan Strait in the Sulu Sea, which is located within the Philippine archipelago. The Philippine Armed Forces confirmed on October 26 that Liaoning and its escorts transited the Basilan Strait toward the Celebes Sea before moving east, south of Mindanao Island, toward the Philippine Sea. A Philippine Armed Services spokesperson stated on October 26 that Liaoning approached within 50 nautical miles of the Philippine coast to demonstrate its presence near Philippine waters….
Liaoning’s movements likely simulated a movement to break through the first island chain toward the Pacific. Liaoning also may have practiced isolating the Philippines or Taiwan during a conflict. Liaoning and its escorts are a significant force, as the Type 055 guided-missile cruiser is the PLAN’s preeminent surface combatant. The Liaoning carrier strike group, containing two of the PRC’s ten Type 055 vessels, has significant area air defense and anti-surface warfare capabilities. The PLAN could use this force, or a similar one, to isolate the South China Sea by cutting off the chokepoints that connect it to the Pacific…. Controlling the Basilan Strait, or other waterways around the Philippines, could allow the PLAN to more effectively isolate Taiwan during a conflict. The PLA may seek to normalize the presence of PLAN assets in critical waterways to facilitate this kind of movement during a Taiwan contingency.
Given the proximity of the Philippines and its ties to the Republic of China, the United States, and others, a PRC attack on the ROC might embroil Manila even if it were inclined to stay out of it. Like Japan and others in the region, the Philippines would feel endangered by the invasion. Which would be reasonable, since it has been endangered by PRC forces for many years in the long sort-of-peacetime prequel to a possible full-scale attack on Taiwan.
Thus it is also reasonable that Manila and Taipei have been talking lately about how to better protect themselves from Beijing.
