Analyzing China’s expanding domination of the South China Sea, Robert Eldridge suggests that United States officials don’t correctly perceive that the purpose of China’s pattern of boundary breaking and lawfare is to continuously create a new normal—one in which China has greater scope for its territorial claims while countries like Japan and the Philippines must endure further encroachment and bullying (“Lawfare by China against Taiwan Aims to Create New Norm: Japan Is Next,” March 4, 2024).
That this malignant growth happens a little bit at a time makes it harder for American officials to clearly see what is happening. “The PRC has changed the status quo and does so daily with no penalties. While these changes may be small and unnoticeable from far-away Washington, DC, they are very big and clear to Taiwanese officials.”
Preparing a pretext
Eldridge cites examples like a February 2024 incident in which a Chinese speedboat crossed the median line toward Kinmen, which is part of Taiwan and is very near the Chinese coast. (A similar incident had occurred near Japan’s Senkaku islands in 2010.)
In a “more intrusive” incident in the same month, a Chinese Coast Guard crew boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat.
The boarding occurred in apparent retribution for what had happened to the Chinese speedboat after it crossed the median line. Before this boarding, China had announced that “its coast guard would strengthen law enforcement activity around the Kinmen islands following the death of two Chinese nationals fleeing Taiwan’s coast guard [after] having entered prohibited waters too close to Kinmen, which lies opposite the Chinese cities of Xiamen and Quanzhou.”
The sequence of events would suggest that China itself created the opportunity for its expanded “law enforcement.”
China’s aggressive behavior in relation to Philippine territorial waters has also created a tinderbox. The Chinese Coast Guard’s blocking, ramming, and spraying with water cannons of Philippine supply ships in Philippine waters has become a regular story.
Citing its claim to much of the South China Sea as represented by a nine-dash line on its maps, China has accused the Philippines of being the instigator. China’s recent so-called law-enforcement activities are authorized under a new law passed in June 2024. The Associated Press reported that this new law “authorizes its coast guard to seize foreign ships ‘that illegally enter China’s territorial waters’ and to detain foreign crews for up to 60 days. The law renewed a reference to 2021 legislation that says China’s coast guard can fire upon foreign ships if necessary.”
Negotiating in bad faith
Such incidents led the Philippines to try to reach an agreement with China to defuse the tension in July 2024. But China chose to interpret this agreement as only one more capitulation.
As Scribbler noted, “the Chinese ministry was soon saying that what China had agreed to was…that the Philippines could continue with the resupply missions only if it gave China notice in advance, each time, and did not haul in a ‘large amount’ of construction materials that could be used to repair the Sierra Madre or build an outpost. Unless it regards itself as conquered, no government can accept such a stipulation concerning movements of its own personnel within its own territory.”
What to do about this?
Holding a dialogue with China on these matters is almost entirely pointless, as China would only use the talks to buy time while continuing its bad behavior.
The United States should routinely penalize that behavior. Each time China interferes with the territory of one of our allied countries, the U.S. government should announce new tariffs and restrictions on Chinese products and people: for smaller transgressions, a slight increase in tariffs; for larger ones, restrictions on Chinese student visas to the United States or reductions in the number of allowed consular staff.
Intensifying investigations into Western-based Chinese companies and personnel may also discourage China’s bullying.
These steps would complicate China’s calculus regarding what objectives to pursue while making it easier for the United States to apply pressure.
