During the pandemic, many foreign airlines got cut off from China. Now China wants them back. But a Russian ban on many foreign flights over Russia is making this difficult (“International Airlines Leave China, Despite Beijing’s Urging,” The Diplomat, August 3, 2024).
The global aviation industry has been divided into two camps: Those airlines that are permitted to fly over Russia, and those that aren’t. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, much of the world has placed sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s government. In return, Putin has slapped no-overfly sanctions on airline companies from the nations that have sanctioned Russia.
The practical effect of Russia’s move to deny international carriers access to its airspace is that most of the European countries that would normally use routes that fly over Russia in order to reach China and other East Asian countries are now forced to use longer and therefore more expensive southern routes that skirt the Black Sea and the Russian border, and cross the Caspian right through the middle. Such adjustments are costing customers one to four hours of extra flying time, and airlines extra crew and fuel costs.
The fallout and to some extent the benefit is mostly focused on China. Rather than trying to out-compete Chinese airlines, which Russia has not sanctioned and which are therefore welcome to fly over Russian airspace, several major international airlines have decided to just drop their direct flights to mainland China altogether.
In most cases, foreign airlines have withdrawn from China for mostly commercial reasons, even if what’s making flights to China prohibitively expensive has been caused by politics.
In the case of China and India, though, the reason for no direct flights between the two countries is unambiguously political, going back to a deadly border clash in 2020, a flare-up of decades-old tensions. Thousands of troops are still arrayed on each side of the border, poised for action. Nevertheless, China wants India to let its airlines fly into China. India would rather not.
Indian officials say: “Unless there is peace and tranquility on the border, the rest of the relationship cannot move forward.” This is not a perfect formulation, but the attitude thus expressed is better than the attitude of those countries and companies willing to deal with China no matter what.
