This month’s purge of nine generals from senior positions, including the Central Committee of the CCP, suggests housecleaning by Xi Jinping ahead of the Fourth Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party. Based on information out of Taipei, Decoding China counts 16 vanished generals.
But the purged are said to be Xi backers. The leading political threat to Xi, General Zhang Youxia, remains on the military commission. Was this Xi’s purge or Zhang’s?
Open secrets
A week before the actual purges, Decoding China, an anti-regime source, posted a video reporting that “at least nine Central Committee members have been confirmed for replacement” and concluding that this indicates “the rapid collapse of the personnel system Xi constructed after the 20thParty Congress.”
Talk about open secrets.
Since Xi came to power, 14 generals that he promoted have vanished or been fired. Taipei’s Up Media is quoted as saying that “46 Central Committee and alternate members promoted by Xi have faced investigation of disciplinary action.”
Also interesting was the news in late June that “China’s Communist Party is preparing to set in regulatory stone the boundaries of various commissions and groups under its top decision-making Central Committee, with new rules clarifying their often nebulous responsibilities.” A close reading of this South China Morning Post story suggests a less authoritarian, more collaborative decision-making structure. This seems to be something the anti-Xi faction has favored.
In its August issue, Britain’s Spectator magazine asked if “forces within the CCP have had enough of the dictatorial Xi, who just two years ago presumptuously declared his intention to rule until 2032.”
It seems everyone is asking the same question.
Rare earths
Almost concurrently with the Central Committee purges came the announced clampdown on communist exports of rare earths.
Katherine Hu, on her YouTube channel, declared that this is Xi’s attempt to destabilize his political rivals at home. Analyst Lei agreed up to a point, suggesting that this could have been a move by Xi or could have been the unilateral action of a loyal subordinate if Xi himself was unable to act. In either case, she brands it a “solo operation” designed to generate chaos in the ranks of his adversaries, those being pro-trade and favoring détente with the U.S.
The clampdown appears to have been an uncoordinated Commerce Ministry decision without reference to the Party or the rest of government.
Lei notes that in a countermove which she labels “the elders strike back,” the Ministry followed up with an interesting clarification: exceptions will be considered and Red China does not want a trade war. One of the weird things about the rare earths announcement is that notification letters went out to international counterparties…but not to the United States.
If this is correct, the softening line may indicate that non-Xi elements are moving quickly to fix a new policy that they disagree with. But perhaps this is optimistic and the changes simply indicate confusion.
In any case, President Trump entered into this matter with a fascinating post on Truth Social: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
Xi having a “bad moment”—is that just an inference or is it based on intelligence? What about “Don’t worry about [Red] China?” Does the U.S. know “it will all be fine”? Who is being reassured here, the markets or one of the contending CCP factions? Is the reference to “Highly respected Xi” an assurance of good will or a matter of taking sides in a struggle that the U.S. is informed about?
Possibilities
The Communist Party Plenary convening on October 20 is supposed to address review and approval of the next Five-Year Plan. But one wonders if the agenda is going to be dominated by demotions and appointments. Removals from the Central Committee clear the way for new appointments, but by whom?
Decoding China’s analysis allows for four possibilities. Most likely: Xi retains power. Moderately possible: Xi cedes economy and propaganda control. Low odds but high risk: generation of external crisis with blame shifting. Worst case: open Party infighting.
Let’s not omit two more possibilities: Xi’s movements and communications are already constrained; public disorder forces some alternate outcome.
A popular new game from the Republic of China, Reverse United Front: Beacon Fire, has been spreading in Red China. It contains the watchwords “Kill the communist bandits!” Communist television aired that soundbite nationwide in an inexplicable error. The game developers said, cryptically, “You have conveyed a more important message to the general public. We have both fulfilled our respective missions.”
What is going on?
Whose purge is this anyway? □
James Roth works for a major defense contractor in Virginia.
Also see:
StoptheCCP.org: “Will Xi Be Shucked at Fourth Plenary Session?”
