The Trump administration’s efforts to keep the pseudo-rapprochement going with the People’s Republic of China represents either thousand-dimensional chess, the distant moves and countermoves of which are necessarily lost in fog if you are not one of the very most gifted masters of the game—or just winging it and hoping for the best.
Friends and allies
“Trump’s transactional diplomacy alarms Japan, South Korea” (DW, December 4, 2025)
“Takaichi declined to withdraw her comments [about Japan’s willingness to come to the aid of Taiwan in the even of a PRC attack on Taiwan], but may have felt less than reassured when the US president reportedly told her in a phone call on November 24 that she should not ‘provoke’ Beijing….
“In a recent interview with Fox News in the US, Trump was asked whether China was a ‘friend’ to the US, in the context of the row between China and Japan. ‘Many of our allies are not our friends either,’ Trump said. ‘China has greatly exploited us…. Our allies have exploited us more in trade than China has.’ ”
Chips to China
“Senators unveil bill to keep Trump from easing curbs on AI chip sales to China” (South China Morning Post, December 5, 2025)
“A bipartisan group of US senators, including prominent Republican China hawk Tom Cotton, on Thursday unveiled a bill that would block the Trump administration from loosening rules that restrict Beijing’s access to artificial intelligence chips for two-and-a-half years….
“After that, Commerce would have to brief Congress on any proposed rule changes a month before they take effect….
“Faced with new Chinese export curbs on the rare earth metals that global tech companies rely on, Trump’s Commerce Department imposed and then rolled back curbs on Nvidia’s H20 AI chips, a move that was criticised by Republican congressman John Moolenaar, who chairs the House China Select Committee.
“As part of negotiations with China to delay its own rare earth controls, Trump pushed back by a year a rule to restrict US tech exports to units of already blacklisted Chinese companies and has vowed to reject a Biden-era rule restricting AI chip exports globally to countries based in part on concerns around chip smuggling to China.”
Overtures
“Trump-Xi Truce Prompts New Overtures by US Allies to China” (Bloomberg, December 4, 2025)
“UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is looking to put spying fears aside and revive his plans for a diplomatic reset with Beijing. He’s urging a more pro-business approach in dealing with the world’s No. 2 economy, and is due to visit China next month.
“French President Emmanuel Macron is currently there. After meeting with President Xi Jinping, Macron encouraged more direct Chinese investment in France and Europe….
“Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany…is expected to travel to China in the new year.
“The spate of visits follows the Oct. 30 meeting between Xi and President Donald Trump, providing Western allies with the opportunity to court Chinese money.
“It fits with Beijing’s agenda, too. China has sought support from France and other nations in its dispute with Japan over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan.”
Spy away
“US halted plans to sanction Chinese spy agency to maintain trade truce,” Financial Review, December 4, 2025).
“The US has halted plans to impose sanctions on China’s Ministry of State Security over a massive cyber espionage campaign to avoid derailing the trade truce President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping struck in October….
“The administration will also not enact major new export controls against China following the deal reached in the South Korean city of Busan, according to several US officials and others familiar with the situation.
“Several people said the goal of the Trump administration’s China policy had shifted to ensuring ‘stability’ until the US reduces China’s dominance in rare earths, which has hamstrung its ability to take aggressive actions. [The U.S. has sought to increase imports of rare earths from other countries and expand mining in the United States.] Trump also does not want to jeopardise his visit to Beijing in April.
“But the decision not to impose sanctions over Salt Typhoon, which has successfully targeted the unencrypted communications of top US officials, has sparked frustration among China hawks in the government who think Trump is sacrificing national security for trade deals.”
