Given how tenuous and tattered it was from the outset, the quasi-ceasefire in the American-Israeli war on Iran lasted a remarkably long time, days and days. The governments of the U.S. and Iran almost immediately articulated opposite understandings of their memo of misunderstanding that they, speaking loosely, accepted to get the ceasefire.
According to the memo, signed June 17, 2026: “8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.” According to Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, several days later: “We will not forgo our right to enrich uranium, and the other side will have no choice but to accept this right.”
Procure, develop
The memo has its ambiguities. But the provision about how Iran would not procure or develop nuclear weapons, albeit unfortunately not also spelling out all possible forms of “procuring” and “developing,” like nuclear enrichment, is pretty clear-cut. And was quickly disavowed by Pezeshkian, who wants the world to pretend that Iran’s enrichment of uranium is unrelated to pursuit of nuclear weapons.
The U.S. need to regroup was apparently greater than its need to not let the Iranians—and the Chinese and the Russians—regroup. Iran was never going it alone. The Institute for the Study of War notes some of the help it is getting (July 18, 2026).
The People’s Republic of China and Russia are likely supporting Iranian efforts to target US bases in the region. US officials told the Wall Street Journal on July 18 that they are concerned that the PRC and Russia are supporting recent Iranian targeting of US assets. Both countries have supported Iranian targeting during the conflict thus far. Iran used an advanced reconnaissance satellite purchased from the PRC in 2024 to target US military assets and bases across the Middle East in spring 2026, according to the Financial Times in April 2026. The Washington Post separately reported in March 2026 that Russia was providing Iran with the locations of US military assets, including warships and aircraft, to support Iranian attacks against US forces. Russia is also reportedly sharing advanced drone tactics with Iran to support Iranian attacks against US forces and assets. Iran likely continues to rely on its key partners to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of its attacks.
In the cited article, The Wall Street Journal reports that “Iran has adapted to U.S. defenses, firing missiles that travel at extremely high speeds and can maneuver as they streak toward the earth, according to U.S. officials. Iran’s ability to hit sensitive targets also has raised concerns that the regime is getting targeting help from China or Russia, the officials said.”
Maybe giving the other side a breathing spell wasn’t such a great idea. Nevertheless, “a top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,” U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, asserts that “the President must negotiate an end to this disastrous war.” Tried that.
Also see:
JINSA: “The Axis Behind Iran: How China, Russia, and North Korea Sustain Tehran’s Military Threat” (March 25, 2026)
“Iran did not build its most dangerous military capabilities alone. For decades, China, Russia, and North Korea—which together with Iran form the so-called ‘Axis of Upheaval’—have helped develop, sustain, and rebuild the very programs now targeted by U.S. and Israeli military operations.”
