Patrols by the China Coast Guard in the vicinity of Scarborough Shoal, which is within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, more than doubled in 2025. That’s the (conservative) conclusion of an analysis by CSIS.
Unofficial impressions and official Philippine government reports that China has been stepping up its bullying in the region are thus confirmed (The Philippine Star, January 30, 2026).
The China Coast Guard recorded 1,099 ship days at Scarborough in 2025—up from 516 in 2024—with patrols observed on 352 calendar days, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies found. The Washington-based research group analyzed automatic identification system data from commercial provider Starboard Maritime Intelligence….
Automatic identification data shows an average of three coast guard ships active around Scarborough daily, though the true presence was almost certainly higher due to signal gaps and disabled transponders, according to the report….
In August 2025, a Chinese navy destroyer collided with its own coast guard vessel while pursuing a Philippine patrol boat—the most severe incident between the two countries at Scarborough to date.
China increased patrols at Scarborough Shoal and Sabina Shoal in 2025 while reducing patrols at Second Thomas Shoal and Thitu Island.
The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative report says:
After years of consistency in patrolling all corners of Beijing’s nine-dash line claim, the China Coast Guard made a major shift in 2025 to focus its efforts on Scarborough Shoal and Sabina Shoal. Analysis of AIS data from commercial provider Starboard Maritime Intelligence indicates that while China’s overall patrol volume has increased compared to 2024, this effort has become more concentrated at Scarborough and Sabina, showing a clear reallocation of CCG resources toward flashpoints between China and the Philippines….
And while patrols in previous year focused on the immediate vicinity of the [Sabina Shoal], 2025 operations expanded southward, encompassing a wider area that includes other nearby unoccupied features, such as Half Moon Shoal.
Nothing new
Altogether, the pattern is the familiar one of escalating encroachment.
In a January 31, 2026 report, Reuters quoted a comment by the China Southern Theater Command’s made after China’s most recent naval and air patrols around the Scarborough Shoal. China, it said, was just “resolutely countering the infringement provocations of individual countries within the region.”
Despite the nonstop lurking and harassment, Philippine fishermen are still fishing near Scarborough Shoal, and the Philippine Coast Guard is doing what it can to protect them.
The PCG says that “that since January 26, three vessels, BRP Cabra (8301), BRP Malabrigo (4408), and BRP Sindangan (4409), along with an aircraft, have been positioned in the area to protect fishermen from Zambales, Bataan, Pangasinan, and Mindoro,” regions on the western side of the Philippines.
Also see:
CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative: “Eyes on the Prize: CCG Patrols Prioritize Scarborough in 2025”
