A mountain of speculation has labored for days and brought forth a little Fourth Plenum mouse or two, for example this October 23 story in the communist-affiliated South China Morning Post:
China’s fourth plenum: leaders bolster self-reliance against ‘raging storms’
In 5,000-word document, Central Committee stresses tech upgrades, security and domestic demand to guard against headwinds of the next five years
After a virtual three-day state news blackout, this report ran for six paragraphs. It was accompanied by a blog post run as a column that provided three paragraphs of information under the headings:
China aims to overcome adversity with tech, self-reliance—as it happened
After the Central Committee vowed to answer ‘major tests’ following its fourth plenum, officials elaborated at press conference
The People’s Daily Online did better with 11 Plenum stories on the inside pages (in the Politics section) on October 24, 2025. But to get a sense of the blackout that had been in place before the meeting concluded, notice the total of three stories on October 23 and zero on October 22.
Uncertainty
As we used to say in the army, if you don’t give information, you get rumors.
Would Xi lose some or all of his power? Would there be a reshuffle and what would it mean? What was behind all of this military highway traffic?
There can be no doubt that things were going wrong behind those closed doors and that the media silence indicated great uncertainty. The YouTubers at China Insights, surveying the Party press, noted on October 23 the scarcity of event photos, the low number of venue shots, and the low placement of the meagre, tiny reports. Secret in China noticed on October 22 that the communist outlet Global Times had avoided mentioning Xi in its Plenum reporting, emphasizing collective leadership instead.
Most striking was the reporting about purges of Xi’s appointees from the Central Military Commission. For two days, news of the purge was kept out of official Party organs, including CCTV, until the People’s Liberation Army Daily forced the issue by publishing an editorial on the subject. It referred to the purged elements—Xi’s appointees—as “toxic remnants.” In a “rare act,” People’s Daily Online did not reprint the item as it usually would. The Decoding China channel also noticed that when Xinhua and People’s Daily referred to Xi, they never included his chairmanship of the Central Military Commission, a “surgical omission.”
Tension
These incidents suggest a tension between the military and the Party’s propaganda arm.
Despite the rumors about how Xi is resigning or being removed (see here, here, here), the commentator who seems to have gotten it mostly right is Wang He of the Epoch Times. As of October 22, he believed that Xi was still in command and reconfiguring his inner circle to forestall challenges. The balance of forces will change, he says.
Meanwhile, Lei of Lei’s Real Talk was left wondering What has saved Xi? He not only continues to hold his three positions (Party chair, president, chairman of the CMC) but has also escaped developing or accepting a succession plan.
The CMC vacancies have not been filled, except for vice chairman of the CMC, with newly appointed General Zhang Shenmin assuming the baton. This has typically been the last step before Party chairmanship; but in this case, a first, Zhang has not also been made a member of the Politburo.
Details of the Five-Year Plan, the original point of this meeting, will not be revealed until November.
The end of this plenum echoed its beginning:
In a sweeping personnel shift, China’s ruling Communist Party of China announced the replacement of 11 full members of its elite Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, marking the largest such upheaval since 2017. The changes were revealed on the final day of the four-day Fourth Plenum held in Beijing on Thursday (October 23).
At the beginning of the meeting, Lei had counted 37 full and 24 alternate members missing. It will probably take weeks before the public receives an accurate head count.
Signs
China watcher Gordon Chang gave the most phlegmatic readout on the outcome of this Plenum.
“I think that the important point here is that the regime has become more opaque under Xi Jinping, so we know less and less about what’s going on. We only can see signs of discontent and discord. We know that the signs are there. We don’t know how significant it is…. I think the most important thing is we can’t make assumptions about China anymore. We’re just going to learn when we learn.” □
James Roth works for a major defense contractor in Virginia.
