In 2024, East Asia Forum noted, citing research by CSIS, that Cuba is “developing sophisticated listening posts in Cuba, which could exacerbate tensions between China and the United States as the two nations continue their geopolitical rivalry. Cuba is deepening its relationship with China—as well as with Russia—causing growing concern among US policymakers.”
Being located “less than 150 kilometres from the US mainland,” Cuba may be a “flash point in any future conflict.”
The flash point may explode sooner than expected now that U.S. President Donald Trump is turning his attention to the island. But the administration is busy at the moment, so overthrowing the communist regime will probably have to wait “a couple of weeks.”
Meanwhile, Cuba’s current dictator is desperate enough to allow a little more economic freedom as an emergency measure (The Times [UK], March 6, 2026).
President Trump has threatened to overthrow the communist government in Cuba but said he wanted to wait “a couple of weeks” after military interventions in Venezuela and Iran.
Cuba is experiencing economic turmoil caused by a US blockade in the Caribbean, and the country’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, has passed emergency measures to loosen restrictions on the private sector amid food shortages and power blackouts.
At a White House ceremony for Inter Miami, the Major League Soccer champions, Trump said Cuban-Americans would soon be “celebrating” the fall of communism in Cuba….
For decades Cuba relied on cheap oil imports from Venezuela to prop up its economy, but these have dried up since Trump ordered US special forces to abduct Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, from Caracas, installing Delcy Rodríguez, the former vice-president, as his successor.
Trump says that “People are loving what’s happening” in Venezuela and Iran, and “Cuba’s going to fall too.”
Widespread power outages in Cuba and other travails have made at least some Cubans open to U.S.-instigated regime change—if they were not already open to it. “Let the Americans come, let Trump come, it’s time to get this over with. We can’t take it anymore. People can’t feed their families,” one man told a reporter “in a barely audible voice.” How many feel the same way but are afraid even to whisper?
Also see:
CSIS: “Secret Signals: Decoding China’s Intelligence Activities in Cuba”
