Although the Maritime Executive asserts that People’s Republic of China dictator Xi Jinping “has said repeatedly that the PLA must be equipped and ready to ‘recover’ Taiwan by 2027,” there doesn’t seem to be any public evidence that he has in fact said so even once.
Xi and the CCP have talked about rejuvenating the People’s Liberation Army by 2027, the centennial of the PLA. And Xi, other Party officials, and spokesmen have never stopped saying that the PRC must and will attach Taiwan to the mainland somehow or other. But the “ready to ‘recover’ Taiwan by 2027” deadline seems to have been only inferred or assumed, e.g., by certain U.S. military officers or intelligence officials.
Modernization
In July 2026, India Today reported that Xi was asking the PLA “to speed up its modernisation and raise its capabilities to world-class standards, saying this was necessary to protect China’s sovereignty, security and development interests. Speaking at an event marking the 105th founding anniversary of the Communist Party of China, Xi said the People’s Liberation Army should move faster towards the goals set for its 100th anniversary in 2027.”
Xi said he wanted the army up to snuff by 2027. Xi also on that occasion repeated the CCP’s constantly repeated views on Taiwan, “calling reunification [sic] with the Chinese mainland a historic mission and an ‘unshakable’ commitment of the CPC,” etc. (India Today’s headline refers to a “renewed Taiwan push.” When you keep repeating something again and again, without end, perhaps each repetition is a renewal. But the mantra had not lapsed and then been taken up again after a dormant period.)
Xi may have said something sometime to the effect that military modernization must be completed by 2027 so that the PLA could be ready to begin to “recover” Taiwan in that year. But the CCP still seems to hope that if it just keeps pouring on the pressure in combination what it seems to think is charm, the Taiwanese will one day subject themselves to Beijing’s rule voluntarily. In any case, we know nothing for sure about when or whether the PLA will switch from ever more intrusive gray-zone attacks on Taiwan to blockading and/or invading Taiwan.
By 2026, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s Annual Threat Assessment was saying “that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, and hold no fixed timeline for achieving unification.”
Certainly, the military leaders who have been purged are making no such plans.
Purges
Suppose the deadline were real and that the PLA could get into top shape by some time in 2027. Given the difficulties of conquering Taiwan, which James Roth has outlined in these pages, it would still not be “ready to ‘recover’ ” the island. But the PLA will not be in top shape. Because the military is one of the organizations whose experienced leaders keep getting purged by Xi.
Maritime Executive says that the “clean-out” of the PLA has been “so comprehensive that it was uncertain if there was anyone left in the high command of the PLA with the necessary experience to prepare for and to execute an invasion of Taiwan.”
Rather than culminating with the recently confirmed dismissal of General Zhang Youxia, who as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the equivalent of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, was the CMC’s most senior officer, the purge has continued. There is almost no officer left in the senior PLA hierarchy to purge—and often, replacements have not been appointed, so many posts have now been left open and further purge opportunities are now limited. The PLA Navy has been particularly hard-hit.
Those known to have been purged earlier this year included General Zhang Youxia, CMC Deputy Chairman, and General Liu Zhenli, Chief of Staff for Joint Operations, now announced as not just dismissed but up for trial on what could be capital charges. Both were previously close friends and long-standing political allies of President Xi.
The author then lists a dozen more admirals and generals dismissed earlier in the year or during the Fifth Plenum (including Admiral Yuan Huazhi, shown above, right). And he supposes that hundreds of subordinates of those dismissed must also have been ousted.
The total includes “all four theatre commanders, as well as the principal operational commanders in the Eastern Theatre who would be charged with ‘recovering’ Taiwan.”
Also see:
StoptheCCP.org: “What War Between Beijing and Taipei Would Really Mean” (May 31, 2024)
