We’re crossing a red line.
A few weeks back, Japan’s prime minister was threatened with decapitation by a CCP “diplomat” for stating a well-known policy, one that was not a novelty or shocker: that Japan would probably come to the aid of Taiwan if mainland China attacked Taiwan. Since then, Japan has been chastised and otherwise punished by China. But these efforts may not be inducing the cowing effect that China hopes for. Its target has now approved a “record defence budget amid escalating China tensions” (The Guardian, December 26, 2025).
The way the headline is worded, sounds as if both country governments may be at fault for “escalating China tensions,” the tensions that have something or other to do with China. Incorrect. In fact, first to last the tensions have been contributed by the People’s Republic of China; which, after all, could simply refrain from harassing and attacking or almost-but-not-quite attacking Taiwan, the Philippines, Bhutan, India, Japan, etc.
Japan is well-advised to prepare for the worst from China. Fortunately:
The draft defence budget for the next fiscal year…is more than ¥9tn ($58bn) and 9.4% bigger than the previous budget, which will end in April. The increase comes in the fourth year of Japan’s five-year program to double its annual arms spending to 2% of GDP.
The budget plan focuses on fortifying strike-back capability and coastal defences with surface-to-ship missiles and unmanned arsenals. To defend the coasts, Japan will spend ¥100bn yen to deploy “massive” unmanned air, sea-surface and underwater drones for surveillance and defence under a system called “Shield” planned for March 2028, defence ministry officials said….
Tokyo has launched several rockets since March 2023, carrying cargo spacecraft and satellites for GPS systems and intelligence gathering, according to Japanese media….
Japan’s current security strategy identifies China as the country’s biggest strategic challenge and calls for a more assertive role in its security cooperations with the US.
Through defense ministry spokesman Zhang Ziaogang, the PRC says about the Japanese defense spending: “Given that Japan’s vicious militarists once launched sneak attacks and that the country is now taking an offensive space policy, it is hardly surprising that there are growing concerns of another Pearl Harbor scenario.” This seems to be an attempt at making a universally understandable allusion. The U.S. does not fear another Pearl Harbor scenario. Nor does China. Nor does China—really—fear another Manchukuo scenario.
With respect to the U.S. sale of $10 billion in military equipment to the ROC and the related “authorisation to spend up to $1bn in 2026 on Taiwan-related security cooperation,” Zhang says the U.S. is “ ‘emboldening Taiwan independence’ activity and undermining peace and stability.”
The words are complemented by deeds. To punish the U.S., Beijing has “imposed sanctions…against 20 U.S. defense-related companies and 10 executives, a week after Washington announced large-scale arms sales to Taiwan. The sanctions entail freezing the companies’ assets in China and banning individuals and organizations from dealing with them, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.”
The reason, per China, is that “the Taiwan question is at the very core of China’s core interests and the first red line that must not be crossed in China－U.S. relations.” Only China may cross red lines.
