Many stories published in recent months suggest that Xi Jinping, the Chinese dictator, may be on the way out.
March 31, 2025. “He Weidong ‘Disappears’: Is Xi Jinping in Danger?”
The disappearance of He Weidong, “Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s close ally and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission,” raises the question “whether He’s downfall is due to Xi’s suspicion of his loyalty, leading to a ruthless move, or the result of anti-Xi forces taking action, causing Xi to lose control.”
On the basis of this and other purges from the military and the unexpected absences of important persons from important meetings, the author concludes that “that Xi has already lost his military power. The reason he is still able to perform on stage may be that the various factions within the CCP have yet to reach a consensus on his successor.”
April 5, 2025. “Will Xi Jinping Retire at the CCP’s Fourth Plenary Session?”
Rumors, speculation, purges, hearsay. “Recently, the prospect of Xi’s imminent retirement gained fresh traction on social media following a rumor that Xi had floated the notion himself, along with speculation among China watchers that the regime’s recent military purges indicate that Xi is losing his grip on power.”
The rumors and speculation are supplemented by “unverified information” given to the YouTube channel NewsInsight that during a visit to the Guizhou Province in March, “Xi praised the cabinet created in the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2022, saying that the selection can ‘ensure the stability of the [CCP’s] collective leadership even if I retire due to health reasons.’ ”
The fact that Xi was not accompanied by a vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission during a recent inspection of the military “could indicate that Xi has lost control over the military” and thus also of “the overall power structure of the CCP.”
Also, in February 2025 commentator Cai Shenkun had reported that “a well-connected individual within Chinese political circles told him that since the CCP’s all-military political work conference in Yan’an City in 2024, Xi’s power has been significantly weakened.”
May 31, 2025. “Observers Say Xi Jinping’s Exit Could Be Imminent Amid Internal Pushback”
The signals have become “unmistakable”:
“A series of unmistakable signals from within China’s political system in recent months indicate that Xi Jinping’s grip on power is weakening and that his removal may be imminent.
“At least three prominent overseas insiders—each with a track record of reliably exposing Beijing’s internal affairs—have said that Xi currently holds only a nominal role and is expected to formally step down in the near future.
“Among the most telling signs are the resurgence of the sidelined Communist Youth League faction, the purge of military figures close to Xi, and the conspicuously low-key inauguration of the Guanzhong Revolutionary Memorial Hall in northern China’s Shaanxi Province. By precedent, the memorial should have honored Xi’s father—Xi Zhongxun, a communist revolutionary. However, his name was omitted entirely from the memorial, and the regional designation ‘Guanzhong’ was used instead.”
Epoch Times again cites Cai Shenkun, whose “high-level sources in Beijing” told him “that senior figures within the Chinese Communist Party have reached a collective decision—Xi will have to formally step down from the political stage.”
Other CCP watchers, including a former colonel in China’s navy, Yao Cheng, also predict that Xi will be stepping down soon.
According to Shen Ming-Shih of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan, “One clear signal is the noticeable decline in official references to Xi as the ‘core of the Central Military Commission’ or the ‘core of the Party’s Central Committee’ in state media such as Xinhua News Agency and People’s Daily. These once-standard phrases are now rarely used.”
Shen also suggests that Xi may not go quietly.
June 7, 2025. ”With Power Waning, Xi Jinping Loses Influence in US–China Talks: Analysts”
Xi’s recent two-week absence from public view followed by an “unusually subdued” meeting with the Belarusian president, a meeting that received only modest media coverage, are among the developments that “have sparked widespread speculation about political unrest within the top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. Some experts believe that Xi may be losing his once-unchallenged grip on power—or at least facing internal constraints on his decision-making authority, including over key issues such as U.S.-China negotiations.”
Political commentator Tang Jingyuan told the Epoch Times: “If Xi were still in full control, the propaganda machine would be working overtime to reaffirm his authority—standard practice in China. Instead, he vanished from public view for more than 10 days, and coverage of him only decreased. That strongly suggests something significant is happening at the top of the Party.”
U.S.-based scholar Wu Zuolai believes that the pro-Xi faction is doing battle with reformers and that the United States could help the reformers by considering “bold, unprecedented approaches to deal with China. For example, it could move to admit Taiwan to the United Nations.”
All these guys may be onto something, but such speculation has been offered at least since March 2024, when the ubiquitous Gordon Chang argued that “China Is in Distress—and Xi Jinping May Be on His Way Out.”
Ten years ago, when others were reporting on Xi’s all-powerfulness, Michael Cole asked: “Is Xi Jinping Losing Control of China?” But his only argument was a general one, that ever-greater repression is not a sign of confidence. He wasn’t reading tea leaves.
