The good news: “more than half” (55.1%) of the people of China oppose the use of force against Taiwan “under any circumstances.” The bad news: “1 in 4 disagree. When asked how long China should wait before using force to unify with Taiwan, the most common response was within 5 years (33.5%).”
These are among the findings of a poll of Chinese citizens about international relations in Asia. The poll was conducted by the survey company Dynata in summer 2024 for the Carter Center’s China Focus initiative and Emory University’s political science department.
Other findings, mostly bad news:
Less than a quarter of the Chinese public (23.5%) hold a favorable attitude toward the United States and its people.
Most of the Chinese public (69.6%) agrees that friendly and peaceful relations between the United States and China are necessary for China’s continued prosperity….
The majority of the Chinese public (66.1%) believes that China should continue to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; a majority (80%) also believes that Vladimir Putin will respect China’s sovereignty and national interests.
Most Chinese people (81.1%) believe that Southeast Asian countries should respect China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea.
North Korea remains an important ally for the Chinese public, with 8 in 10 indicating that China should support North Korean stability and security.
More than half of Chinese people (52.5%) believe the Taliban should be recognized as the rightful government of Afghanistan.
Surveys can be misleading. But this one is probably conveying a more or less accurate impression of broad support in China for the belligerent policies of the Chinese government.
We can be relieved, I guess, that “only” 25 percent or so, many millions of people, support a conquest of the Republic of China by the People’s Republic of China.
But what happens if China attempts a full-scale conquest in earnest (or in extra earnest; the CCP and PLA already seem pretty earnest with their daily military drills in the Taiwan Strait, cyberattacks, and other assaults and intimidation)?
If the mainland does launch an all-out attack on Taiwan, maybe the 25 percent of the Chinese people who currently support conquest will increase to 66 percent, which is the proportion of respondents who currently believe that China should continue to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; or will increase to 81 percent, which is the proportion who currently believe “that Southeast Asian countries should respect China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea” (i.e., should respect China’s unjustified claims of sovereignty over the South China Sea).
Now let’s learn the percentage of Chinese who support their own oppression. Which many do.
