And we should be worried.
Sandra Erwin’s Space News story is about the concerns “rippling across the U.S. Space Force as China ramps up its constellation of reconnaissance satellites” (January 30, 2024).
The people at Space Force have determined, first of all, that China’s assertions that these satellites are just doing a lot of nice, not-spying civilian and commercial things is incorrect. Good call.
In fact, Space Force says, the new satellites are expanding China’s ability to explore enemy territory, among other tasks. This is worrisome, according to Chief Master Sergeant Ron Lerch, an intelligence analyst with the Space Force’s Space Systems Command.
Lerch said U.S. analysts have been following the recent spate of Chinese remote-sensing satellite missions and piecing together open source intelligence, and warned that these spacecraft are providing the People’s Liberation Army unprecedented eyes in space to track U.S. and allies’ activities in Asia-Pacific and other hotspots.
He noted that China in recent years has deployed a large number of reconnaissance satellites. But Lerch specifically mentioned China’ launch in December of the classified Yaogan-41 optical satellite to geostationary orbit, a September launch of a trio of Yaogan-39 reconnaissance spacecraft, and the August launch of what is thought to be the world’s first geosynchronous orbit synthetic aperture radar satellite, the Ludi Tance-4. SAR satellites, unlike optical sensors, can see through clouds and at night.
Chinese officials said Ludi Tance-4 is meant for civilian uses such as forestry and disaster response.
Lerch painted a different picture, and said the capabilities all point towards military applications, specifically high-resolution reconnaissance across the Asia-Pacific and other strategically vital regions.
Turbocharging disinformation campaigns is one of the ways the satellites might be used. U.S. defense officials are also worried about China’s hypersonic weapons and anti-satellite technology.
The Chinese government seems to be adding a lot more to the stuff it can do to us than we are adding to the stuff we can do to it.
One can hope that the recently reported corruption in the Chinese military that apparently resulted in water-filled missiles and nonfunctional missile-silo lids will also afflict the satellite innards and other military things China is developing. One cannot plan national self-defense on the basis of such hopes, however.
As Colin Demarest and Alex Velez-Green argue in a January 22, 2024 piece for Defense News, China’s military corruption scandal “is a reminder that the PLA faces significant challenges—and that the United States should use every opportunity to exacerbate those difficulties. But the United States should not use this episode as an excuse to grow complacent.”
The preponderance of evidence shows China’s military is still modernizing rapidly, regardless of corruption….
China’s air forces, for instance, will enjoy a significant numerical advantage near Taiwan and are increasingly capable, with improving threat sensors and post-processing capabilities, airborne early warning and control aircraft, fifth-generation fighters, and long-range air-to-air missiles.
Meanwhile, China’s naval force is the world’s largest, with highly capable warships and large paramilitary and civilian fleets at its disposal. It is also still growing—quickly—while the U.S. Navy shrinks by the year. Trends may also favor China in space, cyberspace and electronic warfare, and Chinese military exercises are increasingly sophisticated and realistic.
So let’s be worried, and let’s find ways to be less worried.
