Even if China hasn’t really set a deadline of 2027 for blockading and/or invading Taiwan (as some believe), the PRC is taking steps in that direction (“China Suddenly Building Fleet Of Special Barges Suitable For Taiwan Landings,” Naval News, January 10, 2025).
A number of special and unusual barges, at least 3 but likely 5 or more, have been observed in Guangzhou Shipyard in southern China. These have unusually long road bridges extending from their bows. This configuration makes them particularly relevant to any future landing of PRC (People’s Republic of China) forces on Taiwanese islands.
Naval News has seen multiple sources confirming their construction, and has shared information with naval experts to validate our preliminary analysis. The consensus is that these are most likely for amphibious landings.
Each barge has a very long road span which is extended out from the front. At over 120 meters (393 ft) this can be used to reach a coastal road or hard surface beyond a beach….
The barges are reminiscent of the Mulberry Harbours built for the allied invasion of Normandy during World War Two. Like those, these have been built extremely quickly and to novel designs. Although there appears to have been a smaller prototype as early as 2022, the batch of these barges have appeared only recently….
These vessels are only suited to moving large amounts of heavy equipment ashore in a short period of time. They appear greatly over-spec for civilians uses.
Emma Salisbury, a researcher at the Council on Geostrategy, told Naval News that China is also building a “huge fleet of dual-use ships—commercial vessels that could be easily requisitioned for military use when needed. These include in particular roll-on/roll-off ships that would be perfect for transporting military vehicles—and have indeed been built with military specs in mind.”
Opening salvo
Meanwhile, Maritime Executive argues that “China’s Opening Salvo Against Taiwan Will Likely Be a Partial Blockade.” A “nominally civil quarantine on Taiwan…increasingly looks like an opening move for Beijing in taking control of the island….
“Conceivably, China could see whether it could get away once with a quarantine action, then, noting success in asserting its authority, do it again and gradually tighten restrictions until they turned into a blockade—salami slicing, as it does in so many areas of international affairs.” (Exhibits A, B, and C: Bhutan, India, and the South China Sea.)
A limited quarantine or blockade of imports strategically useful to the Republic of China would have the advantage of permitting the PRC to back off on some pretext if its action met with stiff enough resistance. On the other hand, suggests Maritime Executive, stiff-enough resistance in response to a small-scale incursion “would be difficult for Taiwan and its friends, which is another advantage of the quarantine tactic.”
They would have to escalate with warships and possibly armed force to stop a China Coast Guard ship from intercepting a freighter, for example. This would put Taiwan and the West in the unfortunate position of looking like the initiators of military conflict. On the other hand, if Taiwan and the West did nothing, and intimidated shipping companies mostly went along with the quarantine, China’s narrative that it had control over Taiwan would be strengthened.
Worries about “looking like the initiators of military conflict” in the eyes of the uninformed or easily manipulated can’t be allowed to impede self-defense. Counter the propaganda and do what you have to do. Taiwan and allies can’t let China get away with anything that would be a second-step facilitating first step in a blockade or invasion.
Or first further step: China has already taken many initial steps toward grabbing Taiwan over the years.
