The National Interest reminds us that the dictator is not the only person vying for power and control within the political apparatus of the Chinese Communist Party (“There’s More to China’s Politics than Xi Jingping,” September 22, 2024).
Judging by this article, though, it seems that all the mechanics of party politics outside of Xi’s power-gathering is a black box. The authors are not so much explaining what’s in the box as urging investigation of it.
They explain some things. They explain that personal loyalty to the dictator has become increasingly important in China and is “perhaps the weightiest factor” determining who ascends the leadership ladder. But personal allegiance “has not completely supplanted the influence of legacy factors in leadership selection.”
“Age, experience, and regional origins still play roles—to varying degrees—in determining who rises to the Party’s senior ranks. These long-standing criteria remain significant at more junior levels, even as loyalty takes center stage at the pinnacle of the CCP power structure. Aspiring leaders must navigate a complex terrain where demonstrating loyalty is crucial, but not at the expense of neglecting other, traditionally required qualifications.”
Also, we must not forget the factional rivalry that has “long characterized Chinese politics.”
The authors, Michael Mazza and Cathy Fang, say that two pre-Xi factions, the Chinese Communist Youth League and the Shanghai Gang, once major players, “are no longer major players.”
Other—unidentified—factions have arisen whose resources and methods we know little about apart from their loyalty to the same mortal leader, Xi Jinping. It is the “intense focus” on Xi that makes the contours of these definitely existing but undescribed factions, which are the seeds of future disorder, hard to discern.
“Behind the facade of Xi’s all-powerful rule, contemporary Chinese politics is as complex as it has ever been. Going forward, intelligence agencies and scholarly analysts alike should explore the functioning and interaction of these new factions, seeking to uncover how they define their interests, the nature of their competition, and why they may sometimes cooperate. Such efforts will illuminate how Xi shapes and navigates this political ecosystem and how that ecosystem may evolve without him.”
Yes, get on that, researchers. Focus on complexity, interests, competition, cooperation, shaping, navigating, and ecosystem.
