Defending the proposition that Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion have so far been a smashing success, Noah Rothman points out that if the Iranian rulers aren’t doing so hot right now, neither are their sort-of-but-not-really allies China and Russia (National Review, March 25, 2026).
“Both China and Russia are showing that any partnerships they have are highly conditional,” RAND analyst Howard Shatz recently observed. The war has demonstrated that the “trilateral strategic pact” Moscow and Beijing signed with Tehran in January—the culmination of decades of strategic coordination—wasn’t worth the ink. So much for that “cornerstone for a new multipolar order.” And every revisionist power on the planet that was once willing to purchase Russian and Chinese radar and anti-air defense batteries now has ample evidence to conclude that they are no match for the West’s offensive air power.
The war has also clarified the thinking in the Persian Gulf. If Iran’s strategic calculus in executing attacks on the Gulf states’ civilians and critical infrastructure was aimed at forcing Washington’s nominal allies in the region to sue for peace, Iran’s approach had the opposite effect. The Gulf states have not engaged in hostile operations against Iran—not yet, at least, though the Saudis are flirting with the prospect—but those nations have gravitated closer to Washington’s orbit. They are supporting the U.S.-Israeli campaign materially, cracking down on Iranian assets, disrupting Iran’s operations, and exiling their envoys.
Opposing analyses say that Iran is winning the propaganda war (suddenly the U.S. media is anti-Trump!!!! how on earth did the mullahs cowering in their bunkers pull that off????) and that China is sitting pretty vis-à-vis its ambition to conquer Taiwan because Washington is distracted by the war in the Middle East in which the United States and Israel are rapidly achieving all of their military objectives. I guess not rapidly enough though.
China dictator Xi Jinping has been dealing with internal political problems that include tensions arising from his arrests of many generals, including generals at the very top of the military who have strong support within the military. It’s possible that Xi will take the opportunity of the distraction of the war in Iran to send his command-gutted military to invade Taiwan at some point during the next few weeks; people do dumb things. If he does, though, the invading forces will encounter all the problems that have been outlined on this site and elsewhere.
But such a foray doesn’t seem too likely. Meanwhile, the window of “opportunity” is closing.
Taiwan probably has much less crappy air defense systems than Iran’s air defense systems, which latter have been slapped together with the help Russia and China.
The Chinese government is not insisting that the tech it gave Iran is great and that the Iranians must have been pushing the wrong buttons. Chinese military personnel went to Iran to show the Iranians what buttons to push. Many may be still there. On March 18, we got a Global Defense Corp. report, said to be based on sources within the CCP regime, that “at least seven technicians from Chinese drone maker DJI were killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, while 300 to 400 Chinese military and technical personnel are now trapped in underground bunkers with zero communication—many feared dead or slowly suffocating.”
China thinks its military tech is bad
Perhaps the Chinese technical personnel in Iran had no chance to finish training the Iranians. However, Xi recently purged top military tech experts responsible for creating the paper mâché military tech that failed “in Pakistan, Iran and Venezuela.” The persons taken down “include nuclear weapons expert Zhao Xiangeng, radar specialist Wu Manqing, and missile designer Wei Yiyin.”
Removing the digital footprints of scientists involved in nuclear and missile guidance suggests that the ongoing anti-corruption probe has shifted from ‘operational’ military leadership to the defence-industrial complex and R&D sectors, potentially indicating either a massive security breach or a fundamental political purge amid Chinese missile and radar failure in Pakistan, Iran and Venezuela….
Apart from the 50 CM-302 anti-ship missiles, the Islamic Republic received Chinese 6 HQ-16B surface-to-air missile systems, 1200 FN-6 MANPADS, 300 Sunflower-200 kamikaze drones, 3 HQ-9B anti-ballistic systems, 6 HQ-7AE, 4 YLC-9B radars, 3 Type 305A radars, 6 SLC-2 counter-battery radars, and 50 HQ-19 anti-satellite interceptor missiles, Reuters said.
At the first wave of U.S. attacks on Iran, the U.S. Air Force destroyed a stockpile of missiles in Tehran. CM-302 anti-ship missiles, HQ-16B anti-air missiles, HQ-7AE, HQ-9B anti-air missiles, SLC-2 and YLC-8B radars were completely destroyed on day one.
Some CM-302 anti-ship missiles failed to reach the target and malfunctioned mid-flight due to technical issues.
The so-called anti-stealth system that could quickly counter stealth fighters quickly became ineffective in Venezuela under the electromagnetic suppression of the US military; the FK-3 surface-to-air missile system, Su-30, and S-300VM completely lost their firepower advantages after coming under heavy electronic warfare and electromagnetic suppression by the F-35 and EA-18G Growler.
United States forces used Navy EA-18G Growler electronic attack aircraft during the January 3 strike on Venezuela, employing high-power jamming to disable multiple layers of the country’s air-defense network.
All right, all right. Don’t rub it in.
Also see:
Lei’s Real Talk: “Did China Fake Its Military Breakthroughs? Scientists Are Being Purged”
@Ken_LoveTW: “China’s military is a paper dragon”
