Contrary to what you are about to read in the block quote below, the tension between China and India is unlikely to recede anytime soon and will not even be appreciably eased, at least not for longer than ten minutes (“India and China reach patrolling agreement to de-escalate tensions along Indo-Tibet border,” Phayul, October 21, 2024).
India and China have reached an agreement on new patrolling arrangements to ease tensions in the Ladakh region along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) at the Indo-Tibet border, confirmed India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri on Monday.
“As a result of the discussions that have taken place over the last several weeks an agreement has been arrived at on patrolling arrangements along the line of actual control in the India-China border area and this is leading to dis-engagement and eventually a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020,” Misri remarked during a press briefing.
This seems like wishful thinking by Indian Foreign Secretary Misri: “and this is leading to dis-engagement and eventually a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020.” It is not a statement of reasonable expectation on the basis of Chinese conduct in the region, all the regions near China, thus far. I would be glad to be wrong.
Scant specifics
Note that, according to the report, Misri declined to share “specifics about the disengagement process, including whether it would cover all conflict zones along the disputed border.”
One of the things Chinese diplomats and representatives do is utter statements that the other side wants to hear and sign things that the other side is relieved that the Chinese government would be willing to sign.
But this time will be followed by the next time. Next time, the reports may well concern shocking statements and actions by China that the other side doesn’t want to believe. “But wait a minute, you said…and you signed…”
Background
Phayul reports: “Diplomatic and military leaders from both countries have engaged in numerous rounds of talks over the past four years, with limited success.” But “in September 2022…both sides began disengagement at Patrolling Point-15 in the Gogra-Hot Springs area of Eastern Ladakh, a critical move towards de-escalation.”
In June 2020, tens of thousands of Chinese and Indian soldiers were deployed “when a deadly confrontation in the Galwan Valley resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese troops.”
Also see:
CNN: “Face-off at 14,000ft” (a 2020 report)
