It’s not a good idea to appease bullies. They don’t then become sated and leave you alone. That’s what many in the Philippines have come to learn about China and its conduct in the South China Sea.
In that body of water, China continuously harasses the vessels of other countries within their own territorial jurisdictions or exclusive economic zones and strives to expand its control over these regions. During the last few years, the Philippines has become markedly less supine in response to China’s aggression.
The publisher of this blog points us to a recent StratNewsGlobal video in which, according to SNG’s description, a professor of international studies at De La Salle University in Manila “categorically blamed Beijing for its aggressive posturing in the South China Sea, and explained why the Philippines was among the few countries in the region which was not afraid to push back against the increasing belligerence” of China (October 7, 2024).
A hard lesson
The professor, Renato Cruz de Castro, argues that during the last two years of former President Duterte’s six-year term as president of the Philippines, Duterte realized that “appeasing China…would lead you to nowhere, because China will never offer you any concession. China will never moderate its behavior in the South China Sea….
“Although he still…tried to manage the dispute according to Chinese terms, he started basically moving closer to the United States…. [He realized] that we cannot simply drop our alliance with the United States, because [then] China would basically consider you as meat on the table….”
This is what Foreign Policy was reporting in November 2021, though casting Duterte’s change of heart as “flip-flopping” rather than the result of realizing that appeasement wouldn’t work:
“His China-friendly policy is effectively over, and he’s doing his best to align the Philippines with the United States again.
“In recent months, Manila has moved to fully reinstate security ties and rebuild trust with Washington in a vigorous attempt to deter Beijing. Steps include a series of high-level visits; the restoration of wide-ranging defense agreements; Manila’s full endorsement of the AUKUS security pact joining Australia, Britain, and the United States; the reestablishment of the Philippines-United States Bilateral Strategic Dialogue; and expanded joint military exercises next year.”
A long game
In 2024, Professor de Castro says: “China will never offer you any concession. China would simply subjugate you, whether you appease China or challenge China. So then, what’s your choice? Challenge China. Because anyway, you’ll just get the same result…. This is a long game.”
In the rest of the interview, the professor discusses what this long game consists of militarily and strategically.
