If China wants to turn down the heat on India, maybe the recent agreement between the two countries is not just for show. Maybe it means something.
But for how long? As the venerable philosopher said, “Don’t trust China! China is [expletive deleted]!”
The Pinnacle Gazette reports that India and China “have agreed on six key points to improve their relationship” (“India And China Strengthen Ties Through Key Agreements,” March 22, 2025).
Six points
These six points include “restarting the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra [a pilgrimage] and allowing Indian pilgrims to visit Tibet, China [and] cooperating on transborder rivers by sharing data and best practices for managing shared water resources.” The countries also agreed to reestablish trade relations and cross-border exchanges and achieve better cooperation and communication along the border to help maintain the peace. The countries have been fighting on and off over the border since 1962.
These are “significant strides” and “constructive engagements.”
Maybe China is finding itself stretched a little too thin at the moment. China is a big country, with an estimated population of more than 1.4 billion; India is a big country, with an estimated population of more than 1.4 billion. China has a very large army; India has a very large army. But China is trying to conquer the world, and it doesn’t seem that India is trying to conquer the world. And maybe China wants to do something soon that will require that its attention not be diverted by active border conflicts with India.
Or perhaps the China-India agreement does not really mean much.
In October 2024, Brookings suggested that we should not read too much into the pact: “It is significant that, if implemented, the agreement could ease tensions between China and India stemming from their border crisis in 2020. But current and former Indian officials are striking notes of caution, including about getting ‘lulled into a false sense of security.’ Modi and Xi’s meeting—their first in five years—signals a tactical thaw rather than a strategic shift away from Sino-Indian rivalry.”
Mistrust
Writing a little later, Geopolitical Monitor expressed similar reservations.
“While diplomatic gestures like the recent border agreement are encouraging, they don’t fully address the underlying mistrust that drives India-China relations. Both countries continue to expand their military infrastructure along the LAC [Line of Actual Control, a line separating Indian-controlled territory from China-controlled territory]…. The India-China border agreement represents a pragmatic effort to lower the risk of immediate conflict, but it does not eliminate underlying tensions between the two states.”
How can one “fully address the underlying mistrust” that informs India-China relations or Any Country–China relations? As we know, “Don’t trust China! China is [expletive deleted]!”
