If your country needs a rare metal or mineral with respect to which China has more or less cornered the market, the better to exert geopolitical pressure and blackmail, it would be good to find and exploit a massive amount of such metals or minerals in your own backyard. Second best thing, be on good terms with a country that has found them (“Japan’s $26 Billion Discovery Could Change Its Fortunes,” Newsweek, November 21, 2024).
Japanese researchers have uncovered 230 million tons of manganese deposits, rich in metals vital for electric vehicle batteries and smartphones, boosting the country’s push for supply chain independence.
The discovery was made on the ocean floor off Minami-Torishima Island, situated about 1,200 miles southeast of Tokyo, by researchers from the University of Tokyo and the nonprofit Nippon Foundation.
The underwater mineral field contains 740,000 metric tons of nickel and 610,000 metric tons of cobalt. This is enough to meet demand in Japan for 11 and 75 years, respectively, according to the researchers.
Nickel and cobalt are widely used in renewable energy storage systems, particularly in lithium-ion battery chemistries, while cobalt is essential for rechargeable batteries in consumer electronics and plays a role in semiconductor production. Both metals, as well as manganese, are critical for technologies such as lithium electric vehicle (EV) batteries.
According to a June 2024 report by the U.S. Geological Survey, “Critical mineral export restrictions could pose serious challenges to non-Chinese battery-producing and consuming industries.”
The underwater survey that discovered the minerals near Minami-Torishima Island was conducted from April to June. Of course, finding a mother lode of cobalt or manganese is not the same thing as mining and processing it. But large-scale extraction may commence by late 2025, with the minerals going to market in 2026, which is when the Nippon Foundation expects to work with “multiple Japanese companies to commercialize the minerals as domestically produced resources.”
Newsweek observes that China’s ability or willingness to cut off the flow of mineral exports isn’t merely theoretical. “This year, Chinese officials reportedly threatened to curb mineral exports vital to Japan’s auto industry. The warning came as Tokyo tightened restrictions on chipmaking equipment sales to Chinese companies in July, aligning with U.S. efforts to block Beijing’s access to advanced chips.”
We need more underwater surveys and more mining and manufacturing, and we need an end to any political obstacles to these activities.
